Here is what happened in the Las Vegas Real Estate Market for the week of July 21st to July 27th with Brendan from The Brendan King Group @ REAL.
Active Listings reach over 7,000 | 7-days at a glance, 100% of list price received, 17 days on market, 16.1 weeks supply, 970 new inventory, 7,040 active listings, 438 weekly sales, 520 under contract, $541,397 average weekly sales price, and the most expensive home sold this week was $5,400,000.
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The Brendan King Group
Real Broker, LLC
7997 W. Sahara Ave.
Las Vegas, NV 89117
Summerlin Home Search https://bit.ly/3dr5Ian
New Home Site: https://www.showingnew.com/kingvegashomes
This is transcribed (accuracy not guaranteed)
BrendanKing (00:11): Hey, what's going on? It's Brendan King fromthe Brendan King Group at Real.
JackPalermo (00:14): Jack Palermo from the Brendan King Groupat Real.
BrendanKing (00:16): This is your market update for July 21stthrough July 27th, so we decided to have a seat here and just kind of chatabout what's going on. There's lots of hype.
JackPalermo (00:27): Lots of hype.
BrendanKing (00:28): Lots of articles saying ...
JackPalermo (00:29): Lots of negative articles.
BrendanKing (00:31): The sky is falling. You know what? The skyis definitely closer to the ground.
JackPalermo (00:36): But it's not falling.
BrendanKing (00:37): But it's not falling.
JackPalermo (00:38): No.
BrendanKing (00:39): Just even for instance this week, we're at16.1 weeks of supply, which in our language means the amount of months it takesto replace based on current sales.
JackPalermo (00:50): Right.
BrendanKing (00:51): Last week we were at 13.8.
JackPalermo (00:52): 13.8.
BrendanKing (00:55): So that went from nearly just over threemonths of inventory to four months of inventory. What the heck does that mean?I know we talk realtor talk or real estate talk and people are cross eyed.They're like I don't get what that means. It just means we're ticking more andmore toward a buyer's market.
JackPalermo (01:14): Right. Or neutral.
BrendanKing (01:15): The feeling in my opinion right now is ifyou're a buyer, I think you've got the one up on the seller, to be honest.
JackPalermo (01:23): You've got options. I mean, before whenthere was 2.8 weeks of inventory, three weeks of inventory, you were seeingmultiple offers on multiple homes.
BrendanKing (01:23): Everything. Yeah.
JackPalermo (01:33): Because the inventory wasn't there.
BrendanKing (01:34): And there wasn't a price point where thatwasn't the case.
JackPalermo (01:36): Right. Right. But now they have options,so you can kind of shop around and kind of look around and see exactly what youwant.
BrendanKing (01:42): It's kind of nice, actually. So as abuyer, I was looking at The Paseos because we got a listing over there at$1.299, $1.299 million. I was looking at the statistics. We're at 16 homesbetween $1 and $2 million, between 3,000 and 4,000 square feet. About twomonths ago, we were at five homes.
JackPalermo (02:00): Right.
BrendanKing (02:01): And there's one home under contractcurrently. It's pre-school season.
JackPalermo (02:06): That could definitely ... Definitely besomething.
BrendanKing (02:08): So if you haven't checked out 760 StepBeach, now may be the time.
JackPalermo (02:12): Check it out.
BrendanKing (02:12): Because it now may be the opportunity to jumpon that, but that's not what we're here to talk about today.
JackPalermo (02:18): We're here to talk about the market.
BrendanKing (02:19): Yes. Here we are. So right now last week,we were at 6,500 homes on the market. One year prior to that, we were at 2,900homes on the market. What are we at this week?
JackPalermo (02:30): This week, we are at 7,040 homes. Thistime last year, 3013.
BrendanKing (02:36): So what you can see here is consistentlythis is always the time of year when the market tends to have more inventory.
JackPalermo (02:36): Correct.
BrendanKing (02:45): Or more homes come on the market, but thedifference between one week earlier last year and now, the homes only went upby $100, or if not, maybe $80.
JackPalermo (02:56): Right. Right.
BrendanKing (02:56): Right now we're looking at 500 homescoming on the market per week.
JackPalermo (03:00): Per week.
BrendanKing (03:01): Every single week, 500 more homes, 500more homes. When the sales that we're having per week are only 400 to 500, soif you bring on 1,000 more homes on the inventory.
JackPalermo (03:01): Right.
BrendanKing (03:15): Which is what we did this week, 1,000 ...About 1,000 homes and only sell 475 to 500 of them.
JackPalermo (03:24): Your inventory is going to go up.
BrendanKing (03:25): Yeah, so we're going up about 500 homes aweek right now, and like I said, I'm happy to see it.
JackPalermo (03:31): Yeah.
BrendanKing (03:31): You know what? We've got happy sellersthat have made a killing in equity in the past two to three years that arestill getting good prices. They're not getting insanity prices, which we were.
JackPalermo (03:45): Yeah.
BrendanKing (03:45): I've got one house I just recentlyre-listed a little lower than it was before because we had a buyer fallthrough, but it's the story of the market.
JackPalermo (03:54): Story of the market.
BrendanKing (03:56): The prices aren't coming down as a wholeyear over year just yet, it doesn't mean they won't, but we're starting to justsee the year over year go from a 26% year over year.
JackPalermo (04:08): Right.
BrendanKing (04:09): Which is crazy.
JackPalermo (04:09): Crazy.
BrendanKing (04:11): We've all been talking about this.
JackPalermo (04:13): Crazy.
BrendanKing (04:13): That's crazy, 26% is nothing sustainablein any way, shape, or form. I think we're ticking down to a 0% to 5%. Yeah.
JackPalermo (04:23): Yeah, which is normal.
BrendanKing (04:25): Yeah.
JackPalermo (04:25): It's normal. I think maybe for a while youmight see a little bit higher than that, but we're definitely ticking down tothe 0% to 5%.
BrendanKing (04:31): Yeah, and we've seen a few charts and thisone chart has been passed around quite a bit between a lot of agents online.There's a graph that shows areas of the country where things are 100% chance ofbig reductions and a 0% to 25% chance. Vegas is in that 0% to 25% chance.
JackPalermo (04:55): Yeah.
BrendanKing (04:55): But Boise, Idaho, bright red.
JackPalermo (04:59): Right, right.
BrendanKing (04:59): So blue means like chill. Cool. Red meansflaming.
JackPalermo (05:06): Red is bad. Always. Red is always bad.
BrendanKing (05:08): Burned down. So Boise, Idaho, Phoenix,parts of Texas, actually even little blurbs of Texas, not much of Texas. Morethe northwest like Washington.
JackPalermo (05:19): Yeah.
BrendanKing (05:20): Portland, Oregon. I think people are findingthat those areas of the country are quite a bit away from the rest of thecountry.
JackPalermo (05:28): Sure.
BrendanKing (05:28): Unlike ... Only not Phoenix as much butmore Oregon and Washington and Boise. Those three areas in particular arehaving a huge decrease in sales and a big increase in inventory, which meansplummeting prices.
JackPalermo (05:28): Plummeting prices.
BrendanKing (05:46): Washington was a surprising one to me, butit became a haven for people that wanted to change their area and where theywere, and we'll see what happens with this. But definitely across the board, Ispent three days with some of the brightest minds in real estate last week andthey're seeing the same thing pretty much everywhere. Texas, not as much. Thisgentleman was in Houston. He said, "Hey, we're not seeing it. We're stillhot." North Carolina, still hot. Washington, Phoenix, Boise, like we said.
JackPalermo (06:23): Cooling down.
BrendanKing (06:23): Cooling down. Vegas, cooling down forsure. We're not seeing insanity as far as prices going down like crazy.However, if you're a buyer, you've got some opportunities out there, sodefinitely reach out.
JackPalermo (06:23): For sure.
BrendanKing (06:36): Check out the stats. Obviously, we'll postthem down below. We're not going to bore you with every single number thisweek. Really we just wanted to have a candid chat about what we're seeing andwe're seeing supply and inventory going up.
JackPalermo (06:36): For sure.
BrendanKing (06:50): And it's going to continue. It'sabsolutely going to continue, but what did we see today?
JackPalermo (06:57): The mortgage rates dropped to ... It'slike four and a half.
BrendanKing (07:00): Four and a half. So we were at nearly sixa month ago. We saw numbers tick down to four and a half. What that means iswhere interest rates are not when you hear fed is increasing ...
JackPalermo (07:12): Yeah, 0.75. That doesn't mean 0.75 andyour interest rate is going up, or your mortgage rate.
BrendanKing (07:15): No, it doesn't. We're directly tied ...Not directly. Indirectly tied to long term bonds, and so they're always lookingat the long term effects of all this. Where are we in 10 years? Where are we in20 years?
JackPalermo (07:30): Right.
BrendanKing (07:31): And they take that into considerationbased on mortgage rates, and I think we'll probably see ... I don't know,fingers crossed, and just on what I've been talking to a lot of people about, Ithink we'll see a little wave up and down.Jack Palermo (07:47):
BrendanKing (07:47): With mortgage interest rates, barringinflation chilling out, but that'll be a big thing, and supply chains notgetting messed up with monkeypox now.
JackPalermo (07:58): True. Worry about the monkeys.
BrendanKing (08:00): We do need supply chain to open up. Ithink we'll probably see interest rates kind of hover or even tick downward.
JackPalermo (08:09): Yeah, agreed.
BrendanKing (08:09): Mark my words, right? What's today? It'sthe 4th of August at 1:42 PM.
JackPalermo (08:15): Fourth of August. Yeah.
BrendanKing (08:16): I think they'll tick downward. Fromtalking to a bunch of mortgage guys, it sounds like that's probably going to bethe case. I hope so.
JackPalermo (08:24): Yeah, it'd be nice.
BrendanKing (08:26): But overall, our average price point is at$541,397 is our average weekly sales price currently. It's a little lower thanwe were.
JackPalermo (08:38): Last week, yeah.
BrendanKing (08:39): But our year over year is still positive.We always talk about this, if you're at 26% for four years, you're at what?
JackPalermo (08:45): You're at 26%.
BrendanKing (08:47): 100%. Yeah, 100% increase.
JackPalermo (08:50): 104% actually.
BrendanKing (08:51): Yeah, you're at ... But at that point,that's not sustainable.
JackPalermo (08:55): No.
BrendanKing (08:55): And if we go down by five or 10, you'restill up by 16.
JackPalermo (09:01): You're still up. Right.
BrendanKing (09:02): That's still a huge increase year overyear. Either way, hey, reach out to us. If you're on the buy side, there'sdeals to be had. If you're on the sell side, you just have to be smart. Analyzethe market. Don't get behind the market. If the market starts going down aheadof you, then you're just going to chase it downwards. So reach out to myself,Jack, or anybody on the team and we'll absolutely help you figure this out andsteer your way through this crazy storm because I think it's going to be alittle nuts for a little bit.
JackPalermo (09:02): A little bit.
BrendanKing (09:36): The next six to 12 months.
JackPalermo (09:38): Don't forget though, you can always get itsent directly to our phone if you text MARKET to 702-553-1955.
BrendanKing (09:45): So every week we'll message you theinformation. If you text MARKET to 702-553-1955, or just call us. Hey, we'llchat it with you anytime about the market. Our wives are tired of us talkingabout it, so if there's anybody else that wants to hear about it anytime, giveany of us a call, anybody on the team, but hey, we'll see you guys next week.Have a good one.
JackPalermo (10:06): Take care.
BrendanKing (10:06): Bye.